Michigan Election Predictions 2026: Blue Wave or Close Call?

The 2026 Midterm election is just days away, and it's time to put our predictions on the record.

I’ve got Norris Howard, Devon O’Reilly and Chris Moyer around the table to talk through Michigan’s midterm elections. Who we think wins, how close it’ll be, and what we’re watching Tuesday night.

We all think Jocelyn Benson wins the governor’s race. But Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers? That’s where our confidence levels start to differ. Plus, downballot races and more.

We also get into what’s happening on the ground in parts of metro Detroit and whether the coalitions we’re used to are changing. Then we turn to Lansing and the state house.

And don’t forget the rest of your ballot. We talk statewide proposals, the history museum and zoo millages, and the transit renewal in Macomb County.

These are predictions, and we could get plenty wrong. We’re getting back together Wednesday to talk about what actually happened, and probably with a lot of coffee.

Tell me what you think: dailydetroit@gmail.com or leave a voicemail at 313-789-3211.

00:00 Welcome and meet the panel
01:29 Michigan election mood: polls vs. the streets
06:05 Democrats for Mike Rogers and the closing ad blitz
08:18 Early voting, turnout and Republican enthusiasm
09:50 Are Michigan’s voter coalitions changing?
16:07 The races that could decide control in Lansing
20:07 Dearborn and voters who backed Trump
22:42 Oakland County and ticket-splitting
25:36 Cost of living vs. foreign policy
27:32 Our election predictions: putting picks on the record
29:15 Don’t skip the history museum millage
30:26 Chris’s predictions: a razor-thin Senate win
31:32 Jer’s predictions and the debate over Lansing
33:23 Proposals 1 and 2
34:14 Detroit Zoo and Macomb County transit millages
35:13 How late will election night go?
36:51 Your feedback and our Wednesday follow-up

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[Music]

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Jer Staes: Hello friends, welcome to your Daily Detroit. A Saturday edition for Saturday, October 31st, 2026[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: I am Jer Staes[cite: 1]. We are at the studio at TechTown[cite: 1]. We have a full table for our elections midterm predictions and chat episode[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: Joining me is an illustrious panel of regulars and a longtime friend of the show[cite: 1]. To my left, none other than the Prince of Brightmoor himself, Norris Howard. How are you[cite: 1]?

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Norris Howard: What's going on[cite: 1]? The Westside is in full effect once again, Friday show, so you know who's across the table from me[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: [Laughter] And to my right, none other than Mr. Devon O'Reilly himself[cite: 1]. How are you[cite: 1]?

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Devon O'Reilly: I'm doing good[cite: 1]. Happy Halloween[cite: 1]. Let's acknowledge it's, uh, you know, it's a big special day[cite: 1]. And, uh, some of the scariest things might happen next week, though[cite: 1]. [Laughter] So I think that's what we're going to talk about[cite: 1]. This is nothing[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: [Laughter] And across the table from me is a longtime listener of the show[cite: 1]. He's been on the show a few different times for different purposes, but also kind of plugged into all things political, Chris Moyer[cite: 1]. Welcome[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: Happy Halloween, Jer[cite: 1]. Great to be with you and, and here probably representing the Eastside with you as well[cite: 1]. So—

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Devon O'Reilly: Oh, balance it out[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: Oh, it's 50/50 now, hey[cite: 1]?

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Jer Staes: Right[cite: 1]? This—this whole table feels better now that it's balanced[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: Yes, balanced as all things should be[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: Well, there is a lot to talk about[cite: 1]. I think the first thing is, how are we feeling in general about the whole midterm election thing[cite: 1]? What are the vibes out there[cite: 1]? We'll go from, uh, left to right[cite: 1]. Norris Howard, I know you've been in the streets a lot[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: Yeah, yeah[cite: 1]. I—I think the vibe for me is, um, I—I want to say cautious[cite: 1]. Uh, I think a lot of the polling numbers are showing that Abdul El-Sayed has a slight lead[cite: 1]. Uh, it's showing that Jocelyn Benson's lead is growing[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: The Attorney General race is still very, very tight[cite: 1]. So I'm—I'm—I'm cautious[cite: 1]. I don't want to necessarily jump out and say this person is the head and shoulders favorite and they're going to win[cite: 1], because as we saw during the, uh, primary is that these polls can be, uh, quite misleading[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: So, uh, I'm—I'm—I'm cautious, but I can tell you the energy in the streets is not with the Rogers campaign, it's not with the John James campaign[cite: 1]. The energy in the streets seems to be with the Democrats[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: Everybody's pissed off about gas, everybody's pissed off about the cost of groceries, cost of living, healthcare[cite: 1]. Everybody's just mad[cite: 1]. And I think now you're starting to see that energy come to a head with this midterm[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: Devon O'Reilly[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: I think it's—it's kind of steady[cite: 1]. I think, um, there's no—there hasn't been any—any surprises[cite: 1]. There hasn't been any kind of big shifts[cite: 1]. Some of the last polls that came out pretty much told the same story that we've been seeing for the last kind of section of this election cycle now, um, with the leads, you know, Abdul[cite: 1]—

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Devon O'Reilly: I would say—I'm going to say like pretty comfortably[cite: 1]. When something doesn't change, when you're consistently getting, even though people say it's, oh, three points, four points, when that's just the story for months on end, then that is kind of the story[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: But we can never bet against Islamophobia or racism[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: No, all right, no, I don't want—[cite: 1]

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Norris Howard: We can never bet against it[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: No, no, no, this is my time[cite: 1]. This is my time[cite: 1]. You're not raining—you're not raining on my—[cite: 1]

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Norris Howard: You're right, you're right, you're right[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: You're not raining on the parade I'm trying to play here[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: You're right, reclaim your time, Devon[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: Uh, no, it—it's—it's—it's consistent, so I see steady[cite: 1]. I see the fact that, you know, Jocelyn is growing her lead a little bit, and I said, you know, uh, kind of this is going to be a rising tide lifts all boats[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: And to everything that Norris said, absolutely[cite: 1]. And because people feel like that, they are going to vote in a certain way[cite: 1]. It's—it's really, really as simple as that[cite: 1]. I mean, there are leaders in the Republican Party who seem to be actively trying to undermine their own chances of any kind of victory by completely going—[cite: 1]

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Devon O'Reilly: I mean, they've lost the plot so far in terms of the topics that we're talking about, like in terms of whatever, racism, Islamophobia, uh, chauvinism[cite: 1]. I mean, the—the clips from Trump, I mean, in—and others are just completely unhinged[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: So, they're not doing anything, anything to help themselves[cite: 1]. So I see no reason, again, I'm trying to be kind of balanced about this despite whatever I personally think is going to happen, but why would—would anyone have any reason to believe that the Republicans will make any ground in the closing week when they are actively doing everything towards the opposite[cite: 1]?

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Jer Staes: For reference, the Decision Desk HQ polling average puts Benson up 7.8 points, and now, actually, I'll say it has been gaining a bit, four and a half points over Mike Rogers[cite: 1]. Chris Moyer[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: Yeah, this has been a good week in the polls for Democrats[cite: 1]. And I think Norris, your cautionary tale about polling is—is spot on[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: But we have two points of data that now we can look at[cite: 1]. We have early voting data[cite: 1]. We have absentee ballot data[cite: 1]. And then we also have the polls, which are excellent snapshots in time with the cautionary tale that there's a margin of error that you're going to see[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: I—I think back, I've been in electoral and campaign politics for more than 20 years[cite: 1]. My first, uh, campaign, and this was just as a lowly door-knocking volunteer, was 2001 working on a gubernatorial campaign in Virginia, Mark Warner, now a senator in the United States[cite: 1]. Uh, he was successful[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: Norris, you—you hit the nail on the head[cite: 1]. There are vibes[cite: 1]. We didn't call them vibes back then, that's a—that's a more modern—modern term here[cite: 1]. But there are vibes, and the campaign that seems to be having more fun, uh, they often are the more successful campaign[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: And there is no doubt that it is more fun to be around Jocelyn Benson and Abdul El-Sayed right now than John James or Mike Rogers[cite: 1]. Uh, so—

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Chris Moyer: Take the vibes, take the polling[cite: 1]. The Mitchell poll that came out this, uh, earlier this week, the Glengariff poll that came out earlier this week, showed a directional lead for Abdul El-Sayed of five, six points[cite: 1]. You also look at the cross-tabs in that poll, particularly the Mitchell poll[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: As much talk as there is about Democrats for Mike Rogers, Abdul El-Sayed in those cross-tabs was—was showing, uh, 94% of Democrats supporting him compared to 90% of Republicans[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: So how real is Democrats for Mike Rogers, guys[cite: 1]? Like I—I've seen some—[cite: 1]

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Devon O'Reilly: It's astroturf[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: It's astroturf[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: It's astroturf[cite: 1]. It's not real[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: It's not real[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: It's for, uh, what's his name, Turkish[cite: 1]? The—Haley's, uh—[cite: 1]

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Jer Staes: [Laughter] Haley's husband[cite: 1]. That's—that's who it is[cite: 1]. He's been unmasked[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: I will say, I—I saw a number of those, uh, lawn signs specifically in Huntington Woods, but outside of there, I have seen almost none[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: Huntington Woods[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: Yep[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: Sure[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: Uh, it's—it's not real[cite: 1]. It's—it's a small—it's a small group, um, and, you know, they're putting a lot of vocal, uh, support behind this[cite: 1]. So, you know, it's I think it's a extremely vocal, extremely minority, uh, group[cite: 1]. But just look at to—to Chris's point, too, like, all you look at the sides, you just look at the ads, look at the—the—the—the—it's desperate[cite: 1]. There's just—

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Devon O'Reilly: It's oozing desperation on the side of—I've seen like the John James ads now[cite: 1]. The John James ad that's running now is literally like him talking to camera, like, "Guys, I know things are terrible right now, but just please vote for me[cite: 1]." [Laughter] Like, that's really what the—I mean, like, that's really what he's saying[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: "I got nothing, I got nothing[cite: 1]."

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Jer Staes: Speaking of vibes, you can also look at other indicators[cite: 1]. So, it's interesting to me that the Republican Governors, uh, PAC or however that goes together, they pulled their money from John James[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: Yes[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: And so he's not been on the air as much[cite: 1]. And I always look at, I follow the money with those kind of situations and go, who's—who's wrapping it up[cite: 1]? And when I see that, that's definitely the case for him[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: I know that there's been some late dollars, uh, from, uh, a number of PACs for Mike Rogers trying to push him over the line[cite: 1]. They feel like they've still got a shot[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: But, you know what, but they're not pro-Mike Rogers ads[cite: 1]. All the money that's coming in for Mike Rogers, all you've—all you've been seeing are these like scary, try—Islamophobic, I mean, just blatantly racist ads[cite: 1]. Like, there's no like, there's no more pro-I don't see much pro-Mike Rogers anymore[cite: 1]. It's all just trying to—trying to reduce the support for Abdul El-Sayed, which I think is what's—what's also happening here[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: The Republicans think their only chance is that maybe, I don't know, Democrats will get complacent or they won't show up or they'll get turned off[cite: 1]. But, but at the same time—

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Norris Howard: Take a split[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: But—but—but at the same time, Republicans aren't showing up[cite: 1]. This is going to be a huge depression election for Republicans, so they're fighting—[cite: 1]

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Chris Moyer: We don't—we don't know that for sure yet[cite: 1]. Yes, I—I will say the—the data shows right now that the 72 counties in Michigan that are sort of the—the out-of-state, uh, vote[cite: 1]—

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Norris Howard: Uh-huh[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: Uh, yes, they are returning absentee ballots slower than Wayne County, Oakland County, Macomb County, uh, Washtenaw County[cite: 1]. Uh, you know, the city of Detroit is ahead of pace when it comes to early voting, even ahead of 2024, a presidential election year[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: But let's not forget that Republican—the message that has been fed to Republicans for the past six years has been, "Don't trust mail-in ballot, so show up on Election Day[cite: 1]." So we can't say with 100% certainty that they won't show up[cite: 1]. I—I agree there are signals that would say—[cite: 1]

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Devon O'Reilly: Enthusiasm gap, yeah[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: The enthusiasm gap does exist[cite: 1]. But an unenthusiastic vote counts just as much as an enthusiastic vote[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: I think that—I think that's a—I think that's a big point, but I also think that what we are seeing from particularly Northern Michigan with the El-Sayed campaign is some stuff I have not seen ever before in my life[cite: 1]. Like the—the—the amount of people who I think from some of these like purplish to even some of these red counties in Michigan, even if he just splits some of those counties—[cite: 1]

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Chris Moyer: Loses less badly[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: Yeah, loses less badly, is massive for his campaign[cite: 1]. Now, we've said on this show many times, Jer, that obviously if you win Southeast Michigan, you win Kalamazoo, you win Saginaw, you split Kent County in half, you pretty much won[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: At that point, I'm looking at it, I'm like, wow, he may split some, you know, he may split the UP, he may split, uh, Northern Michigan, he may split Cadillac, he may split, you know, Alpena[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: But that also might create some new coalitions, right[cite: 1]? Because we don't know how well he's doing in the city of Detroit[cite: 1]. I think there are some open questions with that[cite: 1]. I don't know if it'll be a ton of people who, you know, decide that they're going to vote for Rogers, but there might be people who leave the ballot blank, and especially among the seniors, right[cite: 1]?

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Norris Howard: I'll—I'll say this, I'll say this, the amount of people who won't vote or potentially even vote for Rogers in the city of Detroit is drastically overblown[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: May—I want to jump in on this point, because I just did give a stat from a poll, a Michigan-based poll that was very, you know, gave a good indicator for Abdul[cite: 1]. But there is some internal Republican polling that Mike Rogers has doubled his percentage of the Black vote, uh, from two years ago when he lost to—to Elissa Slotkin[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: Now, that's an internal Republican poll[cite: 1]. We can take that with a grain of salt, but we should take all poll—we should take all polling with that snapshot aggregation view[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: Well, that gets to my greater point[cite: 1]. Are we in the midst of a realignment[cite: 1]? One of the things that I talked about with, um, Moyer's Monday, I was on that podcast earlier this week if you want to check it out with—with Samantha Striker, there was great reporting in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that there is actually a realignment nationally of Black voters towards the conservative, especially the church community, that is moving toward the conservative[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: And I wonder if some of this is part of a national realignment where you're seeing Black voters starting to change who they vote for depending on their class, their faith, and other issues[cite: 1], and also, and we've just got to be candid here in metro Detroit, uh, with the Jewish vote as well[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: Yeah, I mean, I—I think I can—I can speak for—for, you know, parts of—of the African American vote, the Black vote, is that we see the split for sure generationally[cite: 1]. We know that[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: We know that typically we're seeing younger voters lean more progressive, be more enthusiastic for progressives[cite: 1]. We're starting to see Millennials, who have been staunchly Democrats for most of their lives, they are not moving much[cite: 1]. But when we're talking about Gen X and older, particularly in the faith communities, we've seen them dabble with voting conservative[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: But I can tell you now, what I've seen over the past five months, six months, particularly as Abdul has made more efforts to outreach to the African American community, I was at Fellowship Chapel on, uh, earlier this week on a Wednesday night, and I saw some things that I normally don't see[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: I saw a room of Black Christians, white Christians, some Jewish folks, uh, some Arab Muslims, and Nation of Islam members, all under one roof, and they even had the Detroit Youth Choir performing in Arabic with, you know, uh, uh, with, uh, some musicians from Dearborn[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: That kind of stuff is not stuff we normally would be seeing, but I'm starting to see those coalitions and those—those gaps start to bridge[cite: 1]. But I do think generationally is where we're starting to see a lot of that difference[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: Yeah, and I think the coalitions, uh, in the future might very well be much—much less along racial lines, and like you alluded to, Jer, more along socioeconomic lines, um, more along certain belief systems[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: I think about, you know, this is a two-sided story[cite: 1]. You're right, there—there—there very well could be some realignment where more, uh, more African Americans, uh, vote Republican, um, but there—there's two sides to that story[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: And then there's also voting groups, you know, especially younger groups[cite: 1]. When you're talking about the people who are going into voting age, who are in the next, you know, in the next few years becoming of age to vote, that's going to be predominantly, uh, new Democratic voters, I believe[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: Um, and then also I think, you know, the—the—the largest voting block, which is still white men, um—

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Chris Moyer: White women[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: Oh, I'm sorry, the second largest voting block, white men[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: Yeah[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: Um, it—is, uh, is—is kind of still up for grabs[cite: 1]. And I think, you know, we're talking about like the splitting tickets[cite: 1]. Like there's a new coalition, uh, you know, for Abdul that's very Michigan first, populist, uh, type of message[cite: 1]. Those people that voted for Trump, there's a lot of, you know, ex-Trump voters that like the message of, "I'm going to focus on us, more money in our pockets, money out of foreign wars and foreign entanglements, um, and, you know, healthcare for myself and my family, um, and just putting Michiganders first[cite: 1]."

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Devon O'Reilly: It's a very populist message that Trump really did well with, uh, in his time, and I think it'll ring true[cite: 1]. And I just—I think there will definitely be a realignment, and we—and we—we might be surprised at where, uh, where the—where the cards fall in terms of who's—who's voting for who[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: I would just add that I—I think Devon's hit the nail on the head, Norris, you're—you're spot on here[cite: 1]. And I don't want to over-index that Black voters are—are moving increasingly towards the Republican Party in—in such large numbers[cite: 1]. Doubling the vote in this instance means going from 10% to potentially a—a ceiling of 20%[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: Now that can make this a pretty competitive race if that—if that—if those numbers prove—if that number does prove to be true[cite: 1]. What I—I think the upshot of all of this is, we might have some more voting elasticity[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: Midterm elections are traditionally about base turnout[cite: 1]. Can you—whoever has, uh, gets the most number of the Democrats or the most number of Republicans in line, uh, to—to cast their ballot, they're going to do well[cite: 1]. They're rarely persuasion elections, they're often the reaction to the party in power[cite: 1]. And so the party out of power likes to show up just a little bit more[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: But if we have a—a situation where you now start to see a little bit of—of elasticity, a group that would no longer just traditionally solely identifies with one party, that can create a little swinginess in—in the electorate[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: And I think it's—it's less of a—a reality here in Michigan, something that we're looking at more nationwide, but Hispanic votes[cite: 1]. Hispanic vote moved over the last 10 years increasingly towards the—towards Donald Trump and towards Republicans, particularly in Texas and in Florida[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: Now, it's looking like some of those votes are coming back to the Democratic side, which is part of why the—the U.S. House of Representatives is looking like it's a lock for—for the Democrats to take over[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: This is one of the big conversations, too, though, is to—to your point, I think the—the most prevailing sentiment has been in this election cycle, and we've talked about it on the show, is both parties suck[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: Yep[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: That's what people are saying[cite: 1]. That's the—that's the largest group of people is both of you suck, but I'm voting for this particular person[cite: 1]. I'm not voting for the Democratic Party writ large, I'm voting for this person[cite: 1]. And in a lot of—and a lot of times that person is running against particular, uh, platforms of a traditional Democratic Party[cite: 1]. And so—

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Norris Howard: Yeah, yeah, I've always said, uh, yeah, Michigan's purple because we hate everybody[cite: 1]. [Laughter]

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Jer Staes: Now, uh, we spent a lot of time on those, uh, bigger races, but I think it's very important to spend a couple of minutes with the Michigan State Senate and the Michigan State House, because so much of our local lives are impacted by what happens or doesn't happen up in Lansing[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: And, you know, uh, generally the consensus seems to be is that there's a good chance the Democrats will hold the Senate, but the House is much more kind of up in the air for a lot of different reasons, even with the feeling of a—more of a blue wave[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: What do people think on the ground or experience[cite: 1]? I know Chris, too, you have a lot of experience with local stuff[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: Absolutely[cite: 1]. I—I, and I'm so glad that we're doing this, because as much money and as much time as being as—as being discussed about the Senate race and what's happening nationally, we are infinitely more impacted by the local races[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: Your city council member in Dearborn, Devon O'Reilly here, has a bigger impact on—on your life than who the president is in so many instances[cite: 1]. Uh, and your state representative and your state senate senator have that[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: Uh, talking with—with leaders, uh, on in both parties right now, um, both see their pathway to success[cite: 1]. I'll point one example out in the state Senate first[cite: 1].

17:21.560 --> 17:34.720
Chris Moyer: Uh, last week, Donald Trump came to Michigan[cite: 1]. He came to the 13th largest county in—in—in the state, Port, and a city of 38,000 people in Port Huron[cite: 1]. That is kind of out of the way of major media markets[cite: 1].

17:34.720 --> 17:48.360
Chris Moyer: But it could have a downstream impact on State Senator Kevin Hertel, whose district goes from Grosse Pointe up the—up through Macomb County into, uh, St. Clair County[cite: 1]. This—he won his race four years ago by just over 400 votes[cite: 1].

17:48.360 --> 18:03.440
Chris Moyer: So if all of a sudden, St. Clair County has an influx of Republican voters because they're like, "I got to support the president," that could have a negative impact for—for, you know, in—in the balance Democrats[cite: 1].

18:03.440 --> 18:18.040
Chris Moyer: There are other, you know, there are other, uh, sides to that equation[cite: 1]. You go out to the west side of the state, and right now Nancy DeBoer, a very popular Republican, former mayor of the city of Holland[cite: 1], Ottawa County has been trending to—towards the Democrats over years[cite: 1].

18:18.040 --> 18:29.440
Chris Moyer: Uh, if—I think any—if it wasn't Nancy DeBoer who is so popular over there, I think that that's a seat the Democrats would think that they could eak—easily pick up[cite: 1].

18:29.440 --> 18:41.200
Chris Moyer: You look at a, just outside of Kalamazoo, a guy named Steve Frisbie, a Republican representative, won by 58 votes[cite: 1]. These are real—in—in 2024[cite: 1].

18:41.200 --> 18:55.320
Chris Moyer: These are—these are votes and—and opportunities that Democrats have to pick up, the Republicans have a couple where they're defending[cite: 1]. I think ultimately you're going to see maybe a four-to-six, uh, seat swing in the House, which puts the House back into the Democratic's hand—Democrats' hand[cite: 1].

18:55.320 --> 19:04.280
Chris Moyer: And the Senate, uh, will maybe pick up one or two, even—even if Kevin Hertel is under threat, uh, here in Southeast Michigan[cite: 1]. But I—I—I do think he'll retain his seat[cite: 1].

19:04.280 --> 19:17.320
Norris Howard: I—I will say what I'm hearing on the ground is something similar to that[cite: 1]. I don't think we'll see the same level of—of blue wave in the state house that we have seen perhaps nationally[cite: 1]. I just think when it comes to some of those smaller races, we're seeing people just rock off name recognition and people that they've known for years and years[cite: 1].

19:17.320 --> 20:00.640
Norris Howard: I think one race that I'm looking at, uh, is I believe downriver, Jamie Churches and Rylee Linting[cite: 1]. That's a very competitive race[cite: 1]. Downriver, and—and the Senate race has an impact on that[cite: 1]. Exactly, exactly[cite: 1]. So that's going to be a super, super competitive race, and here it is, you have two young women who are electric and people like them both, but policy-wise, they couldn't be more diametrically opposed[cite: 1]. Um, Rylee Linting who comes out of—out of the Turning Point tradition, if I can call it that now, um, and—and a lot of people in '24 really rocked with her because, again, that Trump message was so powerful in '24, you know, we will see if that has any staying power at the state level or if the same level of sort of anti-Trump, anti-conservative thought stuff, uh, has any impact on some of these down-ballot races[cite: 1].

20:00.640 --> 20:07.440
Devon O'Reilly: Yeah, I mean, well, Chris was the one to field this question because he's got the statewide view[cite: 1]. I don't have the statewide view[cite: 1]. I got to be honest, that's not my—that's not my specialty[cite: 1]. I focus on—I focus on my area and—[cite: 1]

20:07.440 --> 20:16.840
Jer Staes: Then—then I'll ask you, how is, as—as somebody who lives in Dearborn and serves Dearborn, how is Dearborn feeling about all of this[cite: 1]? Because it's kind of—there's a lot of attention paid towards other groups, but honestly, you're kind of at the crux of it, too[cite: 1].

20:16.840 --> 20:31.760
Devon O'Reilly: Yeah, we're at—we're at the crux of it at a national level and a local level[cite: 1]. Um, so, you know, it's something where, uh, Abdul has visited many, many times, our local leaders are—are very close with him, and so, you know, we're not talking about kind of these toss-ups, the—the here—Dearborn knows where they stand[cite: 1]. Uh, you know, it is what it is[cite: 1].

20:31.760 --> 20:34.200
Jer Staes: So do you think some people who voted for Trump will come back[cite: 1]?

20:34.200 --> 20:47.360
Devon O'Reilly: Oh, my god, in droves[cite: 1]! In droves[cite: 1]! If—if there's any place that that's happening, it's Dearborn[cite: 1]. Yeah, there are—I'm—I'll just, yeah, there are—there are, you know, um, there are very few Mike Rogers signs to be found in anywhere in my neighborhood or any neighborhood that I drive through in my city[cite: 1].

20:47.360 --> 20:48.400
Chris Moyer: I'm surprised there are any[cite: 1].

20:48.400 --> 21:07.600
Devon O'Reilly: Yeah, yeah[cite: 1]. Um, so there's just—it's just not—it's just not there[cite: 1]. The enthusiasm behind Abdul, and again, the populist message, you know, you think about, I mean, look, let's be very specific about this, there was a huge contingent, this uncommitted movement that, you know, Dearborn was kind of focused on, uh, Dearborn was the focus of because there were so many, this uncommitted movement was—was almost solely focused on, um, the Middle East policy, uh, in, uh, during—during Biden's term, and kind of getting—getting out of the Middle East, um, you know, not supporting, uh, Israel and—and, uh, what they were doing, especially with, uh, with weapons[cite: 1]. So like it was very focused, and that's part of the reason why either people stayed home, didn't commit, or voted for Trump, was because he wasn't going to—wasn't going to start any new wars[cite: 1].

21:07.600 --> 21:26.560
Devon O'Reilly: Because we all know, we all agree, he's done the exact opposite, um, like the whole point of the uncommitted movement, um, was about that, and without that, they are of course going to go to Abdul, who has actually promised, I think actually people believe, I mean, he's a, you know, he whether you agree with him or not, he has convictions, and he is absolutely against any kind of foreign entanglements, uh, in the Middle East and—and anywhere else[cite: 1].

21:26.560 --> 21:38.200
Norris Howard: Yeah, and listen, we just got to keep it real[cite: 1]. The—the historical notion of electing the country's first Muslim senator is a major factor here[cite: 1].

21:38.200 --> 21:51.680
Jer Staes: And look, I've had a lot of listeners ask me about this in the past, so I looked it up[cite: 1]. There are roughly double the number of Muslim registered voters in Michigan than Jewish voters[cite: 1]. It's about 200,000 to 100,000, and that's something that's omitted in the national conversation all the time[cite: 1].

21:51.680 --> 22:15.960
Devon O'Reilly: And that's—and that's, I don't, again, I don't even, that's not even the story, right[cite: 1]? But that's not even the story, it's like saying just because one group is bigger, the—the groups aren't monolithic at the same time, um, I think if you dove into the percentages, um, of Muslim, uh, voters who are voting for El-Sayed versus Jewish voters who are voting for, you know, Mike Rogers, I think the Jewish vote is actually quite split, and I go back to what I said, I think—I think about vocal minorities, and I just think that that it's—it's, you know, it would be disingenuous to say that, you know, all, uh, Jewish voters are going to go, um, are going to go for Rogers[cite: 1].

22:15.960 --> 22:24.400
Jer Staes: And it's—it's my personal experience that there are a lot of people who have honestly lost friendships over this campaign in the Jewish community[cite: 1].

22:24.400 --> 22:42.560
Norris Howard: Yeah, 1,000%, and you know, I'm glad we brought up Dearborn and—and just talking about greater Wayne County in general, you know, as the—the population center along with, you know, Washtenaw, Oakland, Macomb, Monroe, that Southeast Michigan block, I think we're going to see such a overperformance from Southeast Michigan in this midterm election[cite: 1]. I know we've talked about the city of Detroit is already, uh, ahead on its mail-in ballots[cite: 1]. I think we'll see good turnout on Election Day as well, and I think when we're looking at this—this campaign or—or this—this election cycle, if the city of Detroit plus Dearborn plus the western suburbs come out in a big way, there is no path for this Mike Rogers guy[cite: 1]. [Laughter]

22:42.560 --> 22:58.760
Chris Moyer: I—I—I think you also need to have a good turnout in Oakland County, too[cite: 1]. I—I—I agree with you, but as you get into the southern half of Oakland County, there are so many votes for Democrats in—in that area[cite: 1].

22:58.760 --> 23:23.000
Chris Moyer: We have the concern here, what is—what is Oak Park, what is Huntington Woods, areas that have a slightly higher concentration of Jewish voters[cite: 1]? Are they voting for Democrat, uh, you know, are they voting for Jocelyn Benson and then leaving it blank, as—as some party leaders have suggested, or voting, you know, fully crossing the aisle to vote for Mike Rogers[cite: 1]?

23:23.000 --> 23:36.680
Chris Moyer: I don't think we can discount the unease that—that Jewish voters have in the—in—in this particular campaign[cite: 1]. Uh, it's a reasonable position to have some—to have some skepticism about Abdul El-Sayed[cite: 1]. I think if people had a chance—[cite: 1]

23:36.680 --> 23:40.880
Devon O'Reilly: Is it, though[cite: 1]? Has he said anything in particular[cite: 1]? Because I've heard—I've heard him say—[cite: 1]

23:40.880 --> 23:46.400
Chris Moyer: I—he—well—[cite: 1]

23:46.400 --> 23:55.680
Devon O'Reilly: You and I have heard him speak, and—and I know in his heart this man is not antisemitic[cite: 1]. If you listen to his words—[cite: 1]

23:55.680 --> 23:57.640
Chris Moyer: Yes[cite: 1].

23:57.640 --> 24:02.160
Devon O'Reilly: He talks about, you know, protecting Jewish people like he would his—his own family[cite: 1].

24:02.160 --> 24:20.160
Chris Moyer: Yes, I—I agree, uh, but not everyone has heard what you and I have heard from him, and I think that that has given me a lot of confidence[cite: 1]. What I would also say is that one of the things that he did say after the synagogue attack earlier this year, I think has left a deep scar for so many Jewish voters[cite: 1].

24:20.160 --> 24:34.760
Chris Moyer: And—and the comments of hurt people hurt people, that—that momentary trying to find nuance and equivocation, uh, is—has carried a lot of weight that then has perpetuated a narrative that—that makes him seem antisemitic[cite: 1]. He's not[cite: 1].

24:34.760 --> 24:52.480
Jer Staes: So, but my question with that then is, is there are some times with voters, and I've learned this the hard way, that sometimes voters look for something, right[cite: 1]? And if it wasn't that, would it be something else[cite: 1]? Right, because when I talk to a lot of voters who are against El-Sayed, it's a one-issue voter that they would just—I get the sense that it doesn't matter what he says to that voter[cite: 1].

24:52.480 --> 25:07.400
Jer Staes: Because I think about this historically, when I talk to people who are, you know, are against women's rights to choose, but they're liberal in many other areas, but that one issue overrides everything else[cite: 1]. Is that part of our population now, a single-issue voter[cite: 1]?

25:07.400 --> 25:17.680
Devon O'Reilly: It's a very small, and this, and that I think it's a very small percentage of what you're describing, and I think, look, every percentage is enough to make a difference, yes, but I also think it's—it's very low on the—at the—yeah[cite: 1].

25:17.680 --> 25:34.080
Devon O'Reilly: There's a lot more people who are just motivated, again, going back to the Dearborn thing, that percentage, whatever that percentage is, it is nowhere near the amount of enthusiastic, uh, Arab American Muslim voters in the Dearborn area who are going to go out and who maybe didn't vote in '24, didn't vote in '20, so again, it's a numbers game[cite: 1].

25:34.080 --> 25:36.440
Jer Staes: But I want to acknowledge that people have a lot of pain around this[cite: 1].

25:36.440 --> 25:52.640
Norris Howard: They do, they do, and—and in the same vein that I think, you know, in the same way that I think people paid, uh, a level of, some people paid a level of deference to the uncommitted movement, some people were very furious about it, particularly in the Black community[cite: 1]. That's another—that's another line[cite: 1]. We were very furious about the—the uncommitted movement[cite: 1].

25:52.640 --> 26:10.960
Norris Howard: However, I think what people have realized, especially in this election, especially what we've seen over the past two years from the Trump administration, is that particularly I think in the Black community, we have once again said, "All right, y'all, but what is—what—how do we make things better, all right[cite: 1]?"

26:10.960 --> 26:27.440
Norris Howard: We can—we can agree or disagree on the methods in which we went about it two, three, four years ago, but we are in a, in a, I'm not sure if you saw the video, but the—the one hairdresser lady who said, "We are in hell[cite: 1]. We're on the way to hell, and so whether it's socialism, socialized, social, whatever, I don't care, reduce my cost of living[cite: 1]."

26:27.440 --> 26:38.200
Norris Howard: That is where people are[cite: 1]. So I think when you're seeing in some of these communities, particularly the Black community, where they hear stuff about Gaza, they hear stuff about Israel, they hear stuff about Venezuela, all that all of it is noise to the average voter[cite: 1].

26:38.200 --> 26:40.800
Norris Howard: This is something I've had to do to take myself out of the bubble, too[cite: 1].

26:40.800 --> 26:54.680
Chris Moyer: It's a lot, it is a lot of noise, though[cite: 1]. It's—it's about $150 million worth of noise[cite: 1].

26:54.680 --> 27:07.400
Norris Howard: It is, but at the end of the day, people are going to, and I hate to say this, because listen, a bunch of people dying anywhere for any reason is stupid, and we should not do it[cite: 1]. However, people are going to react to the cost of their gas and the cost of their groceries significantly more than anything happening 1,000 miles away[cite: 1].

27:07.400 --> 27:21.080
Devon O'Reilly: And if they believe that it's affected, though[cite: 1]. I think that's what some of the—some of the ads have tried to tie that and say it's not just about that, it's about the fact that your money, uh, that's going to wars, that's going to foreign, uh, countries, is directly affecting the cost of living[cite: 1]. If you can make that, if you mentally make that, uh, connection, then you're certainly not going to vote for that[cite: 1].

27:21.080 --> 27:32.480
Norris Howard: And I think that message, and I think that message has been effective, uh, across a lot of different voting cohorts[cite: 1]. I—I'm seeing people talk about it in the cities, I'm seeing people talk about it out-state, I'm seeing people make the same connections over the same talking points, and that's why I think you're starting to see, uh, Abdul El-Sayed pull away in some of these polls[cite: 1].

27:32.480 --> 27:42.920
Jer Staes: All right, let's, uh, let's finish this with what we do[cite: 1]. Sometimes we're a little embarrassed at the end of them, sometimes we're not[cite: 1]. Let's do our predictions[cite: 1]. Here we go[cite: 1].

27:42.920 --> 27:45.360
Chris Moyer: I will still listen to you guys even if we all get this wrong, okay[cite: 1]?

27:45.360 --> 27:48.360
Jer Staes: Thank you[cite: 1]. Thank you so much, we appreciate it[cite: 1].

27:48.360 --> 27:50.000
Norris Howard: No one gets it right, Chris, that's the thing[cite: 1].

27:50.000 --> 27:51.200
Devon O'Reilly: No one knows what to talk about[cite: 1].

27:51.200 --> 27:55.760
Norris Howard: Listen, please do not put a bet on Polymarket off what we said on this show[cite: 1].

27:55.760 --> 28:09.120
Jer Staes: Let's talk about, obviously we need to talk about, uh, the two major races, but we can also talk about the four statewides[cite: 1]. You don't have to give numbers because there isn't as much polling, and then the—the legislature, whatever you feel comfortable with with your predictions[cite: 1]. Norris Howard[cite: 1].

28:09.120 --> 28:25.040
Norris Howard: I think we see a Democratic sweep[cite: 1]. I think we see a Democratic sweep[cite: 1]. I think the Attorney General's race will be probably the closest one, but I think the Governor's race and the Secretary of State's race are pretty much locked in[cite: 1].

28:25.040 --> 28:32.400
Norris Howard: I think the U.S. Senate race will be decently close, but I think we'll be able to call it before everybody goes to bed[cite: 1].

28:32.400 --> 28:33.440
Jer Staes: Devon O'Reilly[cite: 1].

28:33.440 --> 28:47.360
Devon O'Reilly: Yeah, I mean, I'll just go macro, because he's absolutely right[cite: 1]. There's no point in going through the—the different races[cite: 1]. What I'm going to—what I'm going to predict, is I'm going to predict when the dust settles, we now nationally have a 25-seat Democratic majority in the House and a two-seat majority in the Senate[cite: 1].

28:47.360 --> 28:48.640
Devon O'Reilly: That's how it's all going to shake out[cite: 1].

28:48.640 --> 28:50.160
Norris Howard: Oh, we win both, hey[cite: 1]?

28:50.160 --> 28:51.840
Devon O'Reilly: Oh yeah, absolutely[cite: 1].

28:51.840 --> 28:53.040
Norris Howard: Two-seat win, I want to say that[cite: 1].

28:53.040 --> 28:56.880
Devon O'Reilly: John Fetterman can defect, and we'll still—we'll still have a majority[cite: 1].

28:56.880 --> 29:00.720
Jer Staes: So nobody's putting points on El-Sayed, you're just going to say victory[cite: 1].

29:00.720 --> 29:14.640
Devon O'Reilly: If—I think he has probably a 5% tail on Benson, so like if Benson wins by eight, he'll win by three, so I think you do the—do that math and just say whatever she wins by, he wins by five less, because of everything we talked about[cite: 1]. He's not going to do as well as Benson, so people should be not expecting him to—he might win by two or three points, but I think it'll be a solid, you know, at least two or three points[cite: 1].

29:14.640 --> 29:15.600
Jer Staes: Chris Moyer[cite: 1].

29:15.600 --> 29:31.040
Chris Moyer: Well, the first thing that I want to say before I dive into a prediction is, when you are voting, please make sure you flip your ballot over, there are a lot of initiative—[cite: 1]

29:31.040 --> 29:34.000
Norris Howard: Vote for the ballot initiatives[cite: 1]. Yes[cite: 1].

29:34.000 --> 29:35.480
Jer Staes: I was going to mention ballot—you go ahead and do it, you go ahead and do it[cite: 1].

29:35.480 --> 29:37.360
Chris Moyer: You can mention them again, just in case somebody—[cite: 1]

29:37.360 --> 29:39.120
Devon O'Reilly: Or me, can we say yes to our story[cite: 1]?

29:39.120 --> 29:40.080
Chris Moyer: You could say yes to our story[cite: 1].

29:40.080 --> 29:42.640
Devon O'Reilly: I want to—I want to say yes to our story[cite: 1].

29:42.640 --> 29:43.760
Jer Staes: History millage[cite: 1].

29:43.760 --> 29:50.080
Jer Staes: Which we had a great episode with the heads of the Charles H. Wright and the Historic Museum, uh, on our—on our show if you want to know more about it[cite: 1].

29:50.080 --> 29:51.680
Norris Howard: Vote yes for that, please[cite: 1].

29:51.680 --> 30:03.200
Chris Moyer: Yeah, if you are in Oakland County and Wayne County, flip your ballot over, Public History Museum[cite: 1]. Okay, plug done[cite: 1].

30:03.200 --> 30:04.400
Jer Staes: That's the one near and dear to your heart[cite: 1].

30:04.400 --> 30:05.120
Chris Moyer: Near and dear to my heart[cite: 1].

30:05.120 --> 30:06.080
Jer Staes: And mine, too[cite: 1].

30:06.080 --> 30:06.960
Devon O'Reilly: And mine, too[cite: 1].

30:06.960 --> 30:08.080
Norris Howard: What are you saying[cite: 1]? I love museums[cite: 1]. [Laughter]

30:08.080 --> 30:26.400
Chris Moyer: Yeah, [Laughter] you, people will get to go to those museums for free, and—and that's a great thing[cite: 1]. Now, I've delayed enough, and—and I I I share the sentiment that both Norris and Jer have—have—have put forward[cite: 1].

30:26.400 --> 30:37.360
Chris Moyer: I do think that Democrats are going to be successful[cite: 1]. Jocelyn Benson's going to win, I think Abdul El-Sayed gets pulled across in a blue wave, the tide washes him ashore[cite: 1].

30:37.360 --> 30:46.400
Chris Moyer: Jocelyn Benson is basically on shore, uh, having a glass of champagne, toasting to her victory right now[cite: 1]. Um—

30:46.400 --> 31:02.800
Chris Moyer: Abdul, I think he's going to win by less than a point[cite: 1]. Um, and—and we talked about this, I've—I get a lot of—of really good Republican insight from colleagues and—and seeing what—what is said at the national level[cite: 1].

31:02.800 --> 31:22.080
Chris Moyer: Um, there is a sense that Republicans are going to start to turn out a little bit more because of that $120, $150 million trying to make them scared of socialism or big bad, uh, Islamic bigotry that is out there in full right now[cite: 1].

31:22.080 --> 31:32.480
Chris Moyer: I think that that actually ends up pulling more Republicans than we thought were going to vote[cite: 1]. The Democratic enthusiasm is there, but the—but voting on fear is a also a tried-and-true method[cite: 1].

31:32.480 --> 31:54.640
Jer Staes: Michigan is often a pretty purple state and likes to split tickets[cite: 1]. So what I'm going to say is, definitely I agree with everyone on Benson[cite: 1]. I think Abdul El-Sayed wins, but it is going to be by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin, and I would put that into the toss-up category still, because these polls just, they—they worry me, and I just know Michigan's trends[cite: 1].

31:54.640 --> 32:05.120
Jer Staes: Uh, down the ballot, I think that Garland, Garland Gilchrist, is in good stead[cite: 1]. I also think that Eli Savit's in good stead[cite: 1].

32:05.120 --> 32:08.640
Chris Moyer: That's a one, that's one to look at[cite: 1].

32:08.640 --> 32:15.840
Norris Howard: Yeah, I think that—I think that race is much tighter than people, because people love a law and order—[cite: 1]

32:15.840 --> 32:27.760
Chris Moyer: I agree[cite: 1]. Think think about, yeah, they like voting law and order, think about how much further ahead Governor Whitmer ran than—than Dana Nessel both times[cite: 1].

32:27.760 --> 32:41.040
Chris Moyer: People like to cross over and, you know, the—the some people say, "I need to vote for one Democrat," or "I need to vote for one Republican[cite: 1]." I'm not saying that Eli doesn't win that race, but—[cite: 1]

32:41.040 --> 32:44.200
Jer Staes: But, oh, it's going to be close[cite: 1]. It's going to be close[cite: 1].

32:44.200 --> 32:51.600
Jer Staes: I think we may have a split legislature yet again in the state of Michigan[cite: 1]. I—I don't know if Democrats take the House[cite: 1]. I'm not sure[cite: 1].

32:51.600 --> 32:55.760
Devon O'Reilly: It would be disappointing just in the fact that, you know, that means just gridlock[cite: 1].

32:55.760 --> 33:04.640
Jer Staes: Yeah, well, I mean, what else is new[cite: 1]? Yeah, and—[cite: 1]

33:04.640 --> 33:05.920
Chris Moyer: Continued—continued gridlock[cite: 1].

33:05.920 --> 33:17.360
Jer Staes: Right, I mean, that's the thing[cite: 1]. I will say that to voters, that if this is a split legislature, um, nothing's going to happen for the next four years[cite: 1].

33:17.360 --> 33:23.000
Norris Howard: Yeah, I—I think for State House, I think for State House and Senate, I think the Democrats will have a very, very slim, maybe one-or-two seat advantage[cite: 1].

33:23.000 --> 33:31.920
Jer Staes: I'd also remember, remind people that we have a number of proposals on the ballot, so Proposal 1's about the Constitution[cite: 1]. I'm a big hard no on that one[cite: 1].

33:31.920 --> 33:32.480
Norris Howard: No[cite: 1].

33:32.480 --> 33:36.640
Jer Staes: Both left and right forces have come out saying that's a bad idea[cite: 1].

33:36.640 --> 33:37.760
Norris Howard: Terrible idea[cite: 1].

33:37.760 --> 33:43.920
Jer Staes: Uh, Proposal 2, getting money out of politics, I think that that's part of that wave, and I think that's part of why it'll—it'll—[cite: 1]

33:43.920 --> 33:45.360
Chris Moyer: That's going to pass overwhelmingly[cite: 1].

33:45.360 --> 33:46.400
Devon O'Reilly: Yeah[cite: 1].

33:46.400 --> 33:57.680
Devon O'Reilly: I think there's—there's questions about implementation and will it be challenged, but I think on the merits—[cite: 1]

33:57.680 --> 34:00.080
Chris Moyer: Oh, it will[cite: 1]. That's going to the Supreme Court[cite: 1]. Yeah[cite: 1].

34:00.080 --> 34:06.160
Devon O'Reilly: Right, but—but that doesn't—that shouldn't preclude anyone from voting for it, you know[cite: 1]. Like, let's—let me do our part[cite: 1].

34:06.160 --> 34:14.320
Norris Howard: Listen, man, when you—when you start to see Jim DeMint like, "This is a great idea, everybody," you're like, "Whoa, what[cite: 1]? [Laughter] This is crazy[cite: 1]!"

34:14.320 --> 34:17.360
Jer Staes: Uh, also, I will note that the zoo millage is on the ballot as well[cite: 1].

34:17.360 --> 34:19.440
Devon O'Reilly: Yes, vote yes for that[cite: 1].

34:19.440 --> 34:28.000
Jer Staes: So that is something else as a reminder[cite: 1]. Make sure—

34:28.000 --> 34:31.760
Chris Moyer: And if you're in Macomb County, vote yes on renewal of the transit millage, our friend Tiffany Gunter[cite: 1].

34:31.760 --> 34:42.720
Jer Staes: Yes, also, that's very important[cite: 1]. It's important that all of our main counties are tied together with transit[cite: 1]. This is a renewal, not an expansion[cite: 1]. It keeps things the same[cite: 1].

34:42.720 --> 34:52.560
Jer Staes: It's something that I think is very important for regional cooperation and access for everyone to give people, uh, getting people around[cite: 1]. It's like so important[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: Yo, this is what taxes are for, cool stuff[cite: 1]! Infrastructure and cool stuff, that's what we need taxes for[cite: 1]. And I would love if those taxes also meant healthcare for everybody[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: Well, that's a different elect—that's a different—[cite: 1]

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Norris Howard: It is, but I'm just saying[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: New episode[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: New episode[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: Uh, so yeah, I think it's going to be an, uh, interesting one out there[cite: 1]. I'll definitely be watching on election night[cite: 1]. Uh, I don't know[cite: 1]. Okay, that's the—and that's the final thing[cite: 1]. Do you think it's going to go late[cite: 1]?

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Jer Staes: Do you think it's going to be called late or called early[cite: 1]?

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Devon O'Reilly: I think it's called late[cite: 1]. It's—

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Chris Moyer: It's always going to go late[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: It's always going to go late, man, but it will be called, I think, before—like it won't be like a 3:00 a.m. thing like last time[cite: 1]. I think it'll be—I think it'll be that day[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: If—if it comes down to the city of Detroit, and—and—and Clerk Winfred, uh, and then Deputy Clerk Gilbert were—were just talking the other day about, uh, about that this is headed for a—a really strong turnout in the city of Detroit, 40% to 45%[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: Um, I know that they're going to be counting absentee ballots early, of course not releasing that—that information, uh, before Election Day, but they're doing everything they can to get those—those—those—those votes tallied[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: But with 400 precincts, it—it takes a lot of work to count all of those ballots[cite: 1]. Uh, it—it—it could come down to, you know, early, early morning, um, 3:00 to 5:00 a.m. type of range for Detroit's results to be known[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: Please don't, y'all[cite: 1]. Please don't[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: Well, again, but to Chris's point, if—if Chris's prediction is correct, then that is absolutely what will happen[cite: 1]. [Laughter]

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Chris Moyer: Well, because if it's—if it's half a point, then of course[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: If—if Abdul wins by four or five points, then I think they call it earlier, because—[cite: 1]

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Chris Moyer: Yeah, then—then you've seen just an incredible swell in Kent County and Oakland County, a—a swing back that way, you're seeing things where it looks more like 2018 or 2022 than 2024 in terms of voter composition and makeup[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: Yeah[cite: 1]. Well, I would love to hear your feedback, dailydetroit@gmail.com or 313-789-3211[cite: 1]. I love when our community comes together on this stuff[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: I will say, we're all going to get back together on Wednesday[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: Can't wait[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: It's going to be so exciting[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: I will have not slept[cite: 1]. I promise you that[cite: 1]. That's one predict—that's one prediction I can—I can chief guarantee[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: Because of—because of the—the kid or the—the election[cite: 1]? That's what I always say, I'm like, I—I won't sleep either, but I don't know why[cite: 1]. [Laughter]

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Chris Moyer: Yeah, no, I'm sure Alice, my—my wonderful daughter, will be sleeping soundly[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: Do—do we need a sponsor to bring a gigantic pot of coffee in the middle of this, uh, table for us[cite: 1]?

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Norris Howard: It would be greatly appreciated[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: Maybe a pot of coffee and that, uh, that, uh, bourbon we talked about the other week[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: Well, there you go, there you go[cite: 1]. All right, well, thank you so much for listening to your Daily Detroit[cite: 1].

37:53.680 --> 38:05.520
Jer Staes: Thank you so much for members on Patreon, patreon.com/dailydetroit[cite: 1]. Local media needs local support to survive and thrive, and that's where you come in[cite: 1]. Become a member, patreon.com/dailydetroit[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: Let's, uh, send it out, guys[cite: 1].

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Norris Howard: See y'all[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: Good to talk to you, Norris Howard, Devon O'Reilly[cite: 1].

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Devon O'Reilly: I'm Devon O'Reilly, and Happy Halloween, hope everyone enjoys their weekend[cite: 1].

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Chris Moyer: Happy Halloween, everybody[cite: 1]. Thanks for having me, Jer[cite: 1].

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Jer Staes: Thank you, Chris Moyer[cite: 1]. Well, with that, I am Jer Staes[cite: 1]. Remember that you are somebody, and we'll see you around Detroit[cite: 1]. Take care, everybody[cite: 1].

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[Music]